Jane Campion’s Western scored the most love in at least the Oscar nomination process with nods being picked up for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and four acting nominations, including for Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Kodi-Smit McPhee, and in a surprise, Jesse Plemmons. The competitor with the closest nomination count is Denis Villeneuve’s Dune, which earned 10 nominations, including for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. Shockingly, however, Villeneuve was snubbed in the Best Director category where Ryusuke Hamaguchi surprised by getting the fifth nominating spot for helming the Japanese film, Drive My Car. Critics groups like the New York Film Critics Circle (which awarded Drive My Car Best Picture) are undoubtedly delighted that the foreign language movie also beat the odds and got a Best Picture nomination while some seeming favorites like Being the Ricardos and House of Gucci were left out in the cold in Oscar’s biggest race. In fact, there were a number of snubs and surprises, the nicest of which, at least from the perspective of this writer, being Kristen Stewart getting a deserved Best Actress nod for Spencer. Once perceived as the frontrunner due to her electric performance—which has been recognized as the Best Actress turn of the year by more than a dozen critics groups—Stewart seemed unlikely to even be nominated by the Academy after being snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs. Yet she got in over the more audience-friendly Lady Gaga, who seemingly just missed out in the Best Actress category to Stewart, as well as the welcome nomination for Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers. More surprises include Judi Dench being nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category for Belfast while Caitríona Balfe was snubbed and—at least in the halls of comic book movie Twitter—Spider-Man: No Way Home not getting a Best Picture nod (which we predicted long ago). Overall though, many of the nominations fell into place with expectations, including what in another year would be traditional frontrunners like Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast and Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story each scoring seven Oscar nominations. Below are our foolishly early predictions of who will and who should win the Oscars in all the major categories. Who we think SHOULD win will be italicized. Those we think WILL win will be bolded. And when they’re one in the same, they’ll be BOTH.
OSCARS 2022 WINNERS PREDICTIONS
BEST PICTURE
BelfastCODADon’t Look UpDrive My CarDuneKing RichardLicorice PizzaNightmare AlleyThe Power of the DogWest Side Story Fortune favors the bold, right? In the biggest race of the season, I’m eschewing the safe, likely choice of all that The Power of the Dog love being converted into Best Picture and instead predicting Kenneth Branagh’s warm-hearted but humbler Belfast wins the top prize. There are a few reasons for this beyond trying to call a curveball at the top. For starters, The Power of the Dog is going to have a very good Oscar night (more on that below), so Academy members might feel a bit more free to spread the love around on their tiered voting ballot for the final award. But to put a finer point on it, while the industry seems maybe ready to accept Netflix as worthy of the Best Picture prize after two years of pandemic revealed audiences no longer go to movie theaters for traditional Oscar entertainment, I would argue The Power of the Dog is not traditional Oscar entertainment. It even feels like we were having a similar conversation just three years ago when Alfonso Cuarón’s delicate memory of his youth, and celebration of the woman who really helped raise him, was the critical favorite. Yet the foreign language, Netflix-produced, and challenging Roma lost to the conventional and feel-good Green Book. Now Belfast is no Green Book (despite what Film Twitter cynics might say). In fact, it bears a lot of superficial similarities to Roma, right down to its black and white photography. However, it approaches childhood reveries from a more sentimental and intentionally rose-tinted perspective, celebrating the human spirit the Academy likes. Hence seven nominations, including Branagh getting a Best Original Screenplay nod. It’s also telling this is the first year since the Academy changed the rules to allow up to 10 nominations for Best Picture (as opposed to exactly 10 nominations). It seems likely the Academy wanted to make sure a few more traditional or crowd friendly movies made the cut. Belfast would fit that mold too.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kenneth Branagh, BelfastRyusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My CarPaul Thomas Anderson, Licorice PizzaJane Campion, The Power of the DogSteven Spielberg, West Side Story I suppose I’m beating the West Side Story drum pretty hard at this point, but Steven Spielberg is one of the great cinematic masters of all time. Nevertheless, the filmmaker finally being released on the musical, one of his favorite genres, was still somehow a revelation in West Side Story. The director of Close Encounters and Jaws hasn’t felt this kinetic and excited to be casting his spell in ages. With that said, Jane Campion did craft one of the most gorgeous looking movies of the year, and one in which nearly every frame is dripping with subtext and innuendo. It’s as visually layered an achievement as you’ll see this year, and given the fact Campion has never won for Best Director—in fact, she lost to Spielberg in 1994—suggests this is her long overdue moment to claim the Best Director prize.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy FayeOlivia Colman, The Lost DaughterPenelope Cruz, Parallel MothersNicole Kidman, Being the RicardosKristen Stewart, Spencer At this point, Stewart getting the nomination for Spencer feels like the win. It shouldn’t. Her immense transformation into Diana Spencer turned one of the most famous women of the 20th century into a haunting figure, a heroine of a great psychological horror. Strangely though, there is strong resistance within the industry against recognizing this impressive turn.
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Being the RicardosBenedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the DogAndrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!Will Smith, King RichardDenzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth It is Will Smith’s year. After being previously nominated twice for Best Actor, once for Ali and once for The Pursuit of Happyness, the true blue movie star is poised to receive his greatest recognition from within his industry for King Richard. It’s a charismatic, appealing, and audience friendly turn. Still, I prefer Andrew Garfield’s more raw and frazzled transformation into Jonathan Larson. Not a natural singer, Garfield nonetheless plunged himself into the voice of one of the great tragic minds in Broadway history. It’s magnetic.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, The Lost DaughterAriana DeBose, West Side StoryJudi Dench, BelfastKirsten Dunst, The Power of the DogAunjanue Ellis, King Richard Aunjanue Ellis gives a quiet but measured turn every bit the equal to Smith’s showier interpretation of Richard Williams. (Some might even say Ellis’ work is its superior.) And her big speech where she puts the “king” in his place is the stuff Oscar accolades are made of.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds, BelfastTroy Kostur, CODAJesse Plemons, The Power of the DogJ.K. Simmons, Being the RicardosKodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog Despite competing against one of his co-stars, nothing is going to stop Kodi Smit-McPhee from taking home a deserved Oscar in this category. And truthfully, this is a real toss up for me personally. Smit-McPhee’s performance is so textured, and so deserving of being revisited and ruminated upon over multiple viewings, that it is difficult to say it is not deserving. That said I still love Ciarán Hinds in Belfast. He’s an often underrated actor who brings sly intelligence to the grandfather archetype in the Branagh movie. However, given he didn’t get even a SAG nomination (and there is quite a bit of crossover between the SAG and Academy voting pools), he doesn’t seem even close to being a major competitor.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BelfastDon’t Look UpKing RichardLicorice PizzaThe Worst Person in the World Traditionally, Original Screenplay is the category where the Academy awards Oscars to movies too challenging or outside their comfort zone for major recognition. And we predict that will happen again with Paul Thomas Anderson picking up his fifth Oscar nomination and first win for writing via Licorice Pizza.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODADrive My CarDuneThe Lost DaughterThe Power of the Dog Call us science fiction nerds, but what Denis Villeneuve pulled off in making Frank Herbert’s sprawling and bizarre Arrakis accessible and captivating is worthy of some kind of award. Perhaps if Part Two is as good as the first movie, he’ll get that Oscar then. In the meantime, he’ll have to settle for the nomination as Campion picks up another Oscar for screenwriting, which will be her second after The Piano.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
EncantoFleeLucaThe Mitchells vs. the MachinesRaya and the Last Dragon We may not talk about Bruno, but we can give him Oscars. Indeed, Walt Disney Animation Studios’ Encanto was a theatrical and Disney+ sensation this holiday season, and looks poised to be recognized as such by the Academy. But personally, we preferred the same animation house’s narratively tighter and just as emotionally cathartic Raya and the Last Dragon.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Drive My CarFleeThe Hand of GodLuana: a Yak in the ClassroomThe Worst Person in the World
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
DuneNightmare AlleyThe Power of the DogThe Tragedy of MacbethWest Side Story Best Cinematography is likely to be one of the places the Academy at last gives recognition to Dune, a technical marvel, as indicated by its stunning use of IMAX cameras. But personally, what Dan Laustsen achieved in crafting the visual language of Guillermo del Toro’s neo noir is stunning.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
DuneNightmare AlleyThe Power of the DogThe Tragedy of MacbethWest Side Story The production design of Dune succeeded in immersing you in the illusion that you were on another planet. That will probably win it the Oscar in this category. Even so, we feel obligated to give a shoutout to Tamara Deverell, who before Nightmare Alley was mostly known for the world of television. After her decadent art deco sets and layered visions of the American Midwest in the last throes of the Depression, that is certainly going to change.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
CruellaCyranoDuneNightmare AlleyWest Side Story
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
AscensionAtticaFleeSummer of SoulWriting With Fire Oscar winner Questlove has a nice ring to it, no? Get used to it, because Summer of Soul is a winning crowdpleaser of a documentary that brings long overdue attention to the obscured Harlem Cultural Festival of 1969.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look UpDuneEncantoParallel MothersThe Power of the Dog It better be Dune. Hans Zimmer created space-age instruments! That and below-the-line voters tend to love films from directors like Villeneuve, who knows how to showcase all the crafts and guilds.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive,” King Richard“Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto“Down to Joy,” Belfast“No Time to Die,” No Time to Die“Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
DuneFree GuyNo Time to DieShang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten RingsSpider-Man: No Way Home Dune immersed you into a world with dragonfly aircraft and enormous worms. It will win here.
